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Do You Take A Chance On Fourth And One
- By: Becky Long
The scenario is, game tied and it is fourth down and one, you now have a vital decision to make, might your team kick a field goal or try for the first down to retain custody just hoping to end your offensive possession with a touchdown? For the majority of coaches the determination depends on timing, what quarter you are in, how self-assured are you in your team to be able to pull it off when under that class of pressure, how inexperienced is your team and who the opposing team is.
Another factor would be whether you have the home field benefit or not, and if the team you are playing has been beaten by your team consistently in the past. The majority of coaches elect to kick the field goal. In the NFL a number of teams are remarkably difficult to beat at home. Take for example, in the 1995 through 1998 seasons, the Green Bay Packers had won 25 successive home games, which included the playoff games as well. The thought process there is that any benefit, even if it is a small one, is better than risking none at all against such a team on the road. So, with that being said, at Lambeau Field, you kick the field goal and take your three points.
However, a coach's strategy may change drastically when his team is playing the same opponent on their own field. If I am playing in my stadium and I am on top 17-7 in the fourth quarter, then there is a extremely good chance that the decision would be to go for it, particularly if we're inside the other team's 20-yard line, then if my team does not make the 1 yard attempt, the other team has to go 80 yards to score. A Coach, given this development, may also consider that it would give his team more experience when in such a predicament the next time around. Especially if they are a young, inexperienced team. It is understandable that you would rather be in the other team's territory when you gamble. You never want to gamble when you are in your own territory, it could cost your team three points or that much needed touchdown.
The most difficult area in which to make a decision one way or the other, is if field position is between the opponent's 35 and 40 yard lines, a distance that may be too far for your field goal kicker but at the same time, too close to punt, if your punter kicks the ball in the end zone, for a mere 15-yard advantage.
When a coach is making the decision whether to kick or punt in this 35 to 40 yard line area, you might want to ponder, well, just tossing a coin.
The most difficult area in which to make a decision one way or the other, is if field position is between the opponent's 35 and 40 yard lines
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